Vilas Oneida Average Home Sale Prices

This chart looks at the average home sale prices in Vilas and Oneida Counties. The on-water and off-water home markets are quite a bit different so I break them down into individual segments.
While unit sales are up approximately 30% from 2009, the average sales prices have not similarly rebounded. Many theories can be presented but the reality is this. We here in the Northwoods do not do much in the way of volume even in a good year. When a home sells for over $1M, it really affects the average price. The highest priced home sale this year was $795,000 for a home on Fence Lake. Of the 312 home sales in Vilas and Oneida Counties this year, only 12 have sold for over $500,000. To make matters worse, there are 317 active listings priced above $500,000 in Vilas and Oneida Counties. This portion of the lake home segment has been hurt much harder than the rest of the market.

The good news is that this market is poised for a rebound. There are excellent buys in this price range and interest rates are below 5%. I remain optimistic that this segment will recognize the value and the opportunities that are available.

I predict that we will end the year at approximately $350K for lakefront homes in Vilas and $325K for Oneida Counties.


2010 Home Unit Sales Vilas Oneida County

Some more positive news. Do you see the red line on the rise? These are home unit sales in Vilas and Oneida Counties. May was the strongest month (76 units) since October 2009. Yes, some of these sales are from the Home Buyer Stimulus Program. However, the Northwoods has not benefitted much from that program as other areas of the country have.
Some other interesting news is the listing activity. You will note that listings (blue line) are actually down from previous years. More Sellers have decided to leave their homes off the market in anticipation of better days. This will help to bring more balance to the market; something that we have been lacking since 2008.
Will we back to the huge years of 2005 and 2006? Nobody is predicting that. However, if we saw levels similar to what we saw in the summer months of 2008, when we saw unit sales remain steady in the 120 area, I would be quite pleased.
Mid month we will look at average prices for 2010. It is difficult to get much of a read as the volume levels are so low as to be statistically insignificant. Now that we have 5 months and roughly 200 unit sales under our belt, we can possibly detect some trends.


Sales by Market Segment

The real estate market here in the Northwoods has not affected all market segments equally. Some segments have fared better than others. The above chart sheds some light on what segments are selling and what segments are not. I chose 2006 as a comparative year.

If you listed your home below $200K in 2006, you had a 50.6% chance of selling. That compares with 37.2% in 2009. If you listed your home between $200K and $500K in 2006, you had a 37.9% chance of selling vs. 21.5% in 2009. If the price of the home was between $500K and $1M, you had 31.1% chance of selling in 2006 vs. 11.1% in 2009. If the home was priced above $1M, you had a 18.2% chance of a sale in 2006 vs. 13.9% in 2009.

The data can be interpreted in a number of different ways. The high end market has been the least affected by the economy. The medium high end has been the most affected market segment. Does this mean that you can simply change the price? I wish it were that simple! Today’s buyer scours the market for listing information and is usually quite well prepared come negotiation time.

I remain optimistic that the market will improve in 2010. Consumer confidence is up and that is a good sign for recreational real estate.


Home Sales, 2004-2009 Oneida and Vilas Counties

This chart shows the unit sales (homes) for Vilas and Oneida Counties for 2004-2009. The red line shows the number of homes sold and the blue line represents the number of homes listed. As displayed, December proved to not be significantly different from previous months in 2009. October was the highlight for the year in terms of unit sales and pricing.

What are we to expect in 2010? I don’t think it would be much of a stretch for me to predict unit sales between 50 and 75 units for the first 4 months of 2010. We saw those sorts of numbers in 2008 and 2009. I remain optimistic that the warmer months will see sales in excess of 100 units during the summer. Why the optimism? This market has a tendency to parallel consumer confidence. Consumer confidence is much stronger than it was 12 months ago. We have good inventory, historically low interest rates, banks willing to lend money (unlike 12 months ago) and $6500-$8000 incentives. If someone was looking to move up, it really is an opportune time.
So we will see what 2010 brings.

I wish you all the best for the New Year!
Sincerely,
Jim Mulleady – Broker
Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS
jim@28lakes.com www.28lakes.com


Oneida and Vilas County Average Values

The above chart shows year end home averages for Vilas and Oneida Counties for the years 2003 and 2009. It does not show volume however. I will show volume in the next newsletter. Volume has definitely increased in the last quarter of 2009.

There is some bad news along with the good news of the increased volume levels. We have seen increased activity in the foreclosure market and that did affect the overall average figures in 2009. With volume off 60% on-water from 2007, a deep discount on a home will have a bigger affect on the average figures and I think that is what we are seeing at year end here in 2009. Waterfront homes are selling at around the 2005 price level. Off water homes did not see the spike in values that on-water did and the price has not changed drastically from 2008 levels.

What does all this mean for the future? It all starts with consumer confidence and the Buyers seem to be coming back at this time. They are bargain shopping! Interest rates are still quite attractive, still hovering around 5%. Then there is the $6500 stimulus for all Buyers. I think 2010 will be a stronger year for Northwoods real estate.

Best wishes for the new year!


Oneida and Vilas County Average Home Values

A bit of a mixed bag of mid month news; the average lake home value increased by approximately $25K in the past month. This is due in large part to a higher priced mix of homes in October. As we saw in the previous report, sales volume in units increased to over 100 units for the first time since last October. As far as the values go, we saw increases on the water in both Vilas and Oneida Counties. We saw a slight decrease in values in the off-water home market. This is due to stress sales, bank-owned properties and the overall state of the economy.
What the chart follows are home sales in units in Oneida and Vilas Counties by home type, whether it is off-water or lakefront. It measures home prices by average since January 1, 2009. Obviously, in a year like this when home sales are slow, a high priced home sale has more effect than it would during a year where volume is greater.
What this means is that some of the medium priced buyers have re-entered the market. There are some very good buys out there and 30 year mortgage rates are hovering at 5% and slightly below. If you are considering a Northwoods home, this is an opportune time to be a Buyer!


Oneida and Vilas Unit Sales 11-3-09

Some good news for a change! We reached over 100 units sold for the first time in 2009 and the most units since last October. 109 units sold in October vs. 122 last October. It’s a start!

The above are home unit sales by month for the past 24 months. Some bad news is that 2009 unit sales have been below 2008 unit sales for the past 12 months. One month, April, almost surpassed the previous year 76 vs. 77 units. The largest gap was between December 2008 vs. December 2007 where 72 units were sold in 2008 vs. 179 units were sold in 2007.

One thing becomes quite clear on this chart is the beginning of the real estate slowdown. If you throw out February, March and April of 2008, the rest of the year was relatively strong. Those three months are historically slow periods in Northwoods real estate. October 2008 was the final strong month for Northwoods real estate with sales of 122 homes. Since that time, we have had only one month with sales above 80 units (August 2009 saw 84 units sold).

What will the future hold? The uptick in volume is certainly welcome news for sellers and REALTORS. The $8000 stimulus has helped in other parts of Wisconsin and the nation but it has not made a significant impact on Northwoods real estate. I remain optimistic that 2010 will surpass 2009 and that Octobers number, while not outstanding, are a step in the right direction. The one common element that the Buyers are looking for are “deals”.


Oneida and Vilas Unit Sales 10-1-09

At least it is not going down! That is what I said last month, too! The red line represents the homes sold in Vilas and Oneida Counties for the month. The blue line represents the units listed in the month. The bad news is last month was the first month where we saw an increase in sales over the previous year. September saw the trend go back the way it had been the previous 7 months and that was lower sales than 2008. Not a good sign for Sellers. Some good news for Sellers is that inventory levels seem to be going down a bit as disgruntled Sellers remove themselves from the market.
78 units were sold in 2009 vs. 121 sold in 2008. There simply are not many Buyers out there in the market. I really thought that activity would increase in the fall. Obviously, my predictions were incorrect (I have a possible future career as a weather forecaster).
One thing that is certain is that the interest rates and inventory is there and the values are out there. There has never been a better time to be a Buyer!


Oneida and Vilas Average Values

What a tumble we are seeing on the on-water homes in both Vilas and Oneida Counties! Vilas has retreated all the way back to 2004 numbers. Oneida has only gone back to 2006 figures. Is it time to panic? The drop is dramatic but one should study what is behind the numbers. 11 homes have been sold in Vilas and 11 in Oneida County that were priced above $500K. In 2008, there were 31 and 32 homes sold in those counties. In 2007, there were 61 homes sold in Vilas above $500K and 46 in Oneida. The real problem is that we are not selling the volume of higher priced lake homes that we used to. That brings the average price down in a big hurry.

Always the optimist, what positive can we find? Has there ever been a better time to buy a lake home. I recently saw a graph of mortgage rates for the history of the US. Interest rates are near the lowest point we have ever seen and now we have low home prices to boot. Has there ever been a better time to buy a Northwoods’ lake home!


Vilas and Oneida County Home Sales

At least it is not going down! The blue line is new listings while the red line represents sold units. A definitive trend has evolved this summer and to REALTORS and sellers this will come as no surprise. The volume was down in the summer of 2008 to around 120 units per month (homes and condos). This summer, it’s hovered around 75 per month, roughly a 35% drop. The summers of 2005 through 2007 saw averages in the 200 units per month area. So, we are moving approximately 37% of the homes that we were in previous summers.

The news is not all negative. The 84 units that sold in August were the most sold since October of 2008. As far as the year-to-date numbers, the entire MLS is roughly 33% down from 2008 but that is better than the -45% we were down earlier in 2009. We are digging ourselves out but at a sluggish pace.

Interestingly, the market below $200,000 and above $1M are the most active (or lease inactive if you prefer). The stimulus program is helping those in the lower market. There are some great values out there for those who have been waiting on the sidelines.


Unit Sales by Market Segment

The Northwood’s real estate market has been through a difficult period. There are market segments that are performing well and some market segments that are not doing so well. The following chart represents unit sales by price category.

I broke down the prices into 4 segments, $0 to $200K, $200K to $500K, $500K to $1M and above $1M. I compared the past 12 months unit sales to the calendar year of 2006. The chart is looking at the number of listings taken versus the number of listings sold during that time period.

Essentially, it is giving you the percent chance of a home selling. If you have a $300K home, at present you have roughly a 20% chance that it will sell this year. In 2006, your chances were over 35%.

As you can see represented by the blue columns, the $500K to $1M segment is not doing so well. The $0 to $200K market is performing reasonably well. While some people are severely affected by the economy, those buyers above $1M don’t seem to be as affected as one can tell by comparing 2006 to 2009. There is not much of a difference.

As I have said before, it’s a great time to be a buyer!


Vilas Oneida Avg. Home Price

Not going down! That’s the good news! The average numbers did not decline from the past 30 days and we can all be thankful for that piece of good news (except if you are a buyer). Some other good news is that Vilas County Transfer Tax is down only 15% from 2008. That is better than it has been. Transfer tax is the .3% that all sellers pay to the state when they sell their property. For 2009, we are presently down 40% year to date. So, the market is not falling as fast as it was earlier in the year.

Is it time to celebrate? Perhaps if you are a buyer. Perhaps not if you are a Seller. The stimulus package has not improved the real estate market here in the Northwoods. We still have many summer visitors as there is no place on earth better to be than the Northwoods. The inventory is excellent. Interest rates are very good, too. There are incentives for those first time home buyers as well. Has there ever been a better time to buy?